Not All Doom and Gloom for Canada On World Stage
Lina Ko August 31st, 2009
According to the Globe and Mail, the demographic challenge facing developed nations is expected to dwarf the cost of recent financial stimulus.
Demographics have become one of the most worrisome challenges on the global stage. The dismal demographic scenario is that the number of older people will grow faster than younger ones everywhere in the world. This, in turn, is putting enormous pressure on governments, already stretching their fiscal capacity to the limit to cope with the fallout from the global financial crisis and ensuing economic sluimp. United Nations estimates show that birth rates have fallen below replacement levels in more than 70 countries, including most of the developed world, at a time when larger numbers of people are living well into old age.
The International Monetary Fund warned in a recent report that governments must contrive clear exit strategies from their massive stimulus packages because the exorbitant costs of supporting ageing societies are breathing down their necks.
In Canada, Finance Department officials are already crunching numbers to figure out how soon the big bills associated with ageing will hit, and how much time Ottawa has to spend to get spending and revenues back in balance.
Canada’s ratio of ageing costs compared to crisis spending is probably considered one of the highest in the world by the IMF partly because the crisis costs have not been huge, compared with those of other countries. But it’s also because the cost of ageing is expected to rise rapidly.
The added costs to health care, Old Age Security, government pensions and other age-sensitive spending will amount to about $1.5 trillion in today’s dollars – a burden that will mostly be borne by the provinces, particularly in Eastern Canada.
But compared with the likes of rapidly ageing Japan, Russia and a handful of Western European countries such as Italy, Canada is in relatively good shape.
Canada has the lowest net government debt-to-GDP ratio among the leading industrial countries and more favourable demographics than most, thanks partly to a large immigrant population. Another plus for Canada is that since the mid-1990s, a growing number of people past the age of 55 have been staying in the work force, The participation rate for this age group has risen 12 percentage points to a record 35 per cent, a trend that may help the Canada Pension Plan stay above water.
It’s not all doom and gloom for Canada on the world stage!